Wednesday, June 12, 2013

False rumor, prejudice, blind spots ; a rumor of the economy 1

 Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe 

< Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe >

In this series, I will introduce some dangerous opinions that we accept everything on faith, and viewpoints that we don’t usually notice.

About “In world history, there had never been any nation was bankrupted for an accumulated debt.”

Many countries ruined in the past, but we didn’t surely hear the story that a nation was bankrupted for an accumulated debt.
However, many countries could not deal with increasing government expenses and meddled with every reckless measure and disappeared from the history finally.


このシリーズでは、鵜呑みにすれば危険な説や、日頃気づかない視点などを取り上げます。

「歴史上、累積債務で国家が潰れることは無かった」について

過去、多くの国は滅亡していったが、確かに累積債務により潰れた話は聞かない。
しかし、多くの国が増加一途の財政支出を賄えず、あらゆる無謀な策に手を出し、最後は歴史から消えて行きました。


Hyperinflation in Germany 

< Hyperinflation in Germany >

The Roman Empire and the Edo government repeated a recoinage, and inflation became common. Indeed, there is only nothing.
Germany after World War I printed paper money too much and became the hyperinflation.
France of the Middle Ages performed a barratry, a tax increase, an enormous debt in order to over the financial lack.
The King didn’t pay the debt one-sidedly repeatedly.
The merchant who bought a special privilege invited an economic disparity and a rigidification of the economy.
And the government clerk who increased invited a severe raising tax.

These disordered and exhausted the society, and tormented the common people among other things.
It has been a part of the reason for an internal insurrection, a revolution, and being invaded.
In the end, a fate of the country would run out.


ローマ帝国や幕府は改鋳を繰り返し、インフレが日常化して行きました(それだけではないが)。
第一次大戦後のドイツは紙幣を刷りすぎてハイパーインフレになりました。
中世フランスでは財源不足を補う為に官職売買、増税、莫大な借金をした。
王は繰り返し一方的に金利と元金の踏み倒しを行った。
特権を買った商人や増えた官吏は、経済の硬直化と不平等、苛酷な増税につながった。

これらは社会を混乱・疲弊させ、とりわけ庶民を苦しめた。
このことが革命やファシズムを招き、また侵略される一因となり国の命運が尽きることになった。


Financial crisis of Greece 

< Financial crisis of Greece >

Almost all feudal domains and the Edo government at the Meiji Restoration didn’t pay the enormous debt (military currency), just like the Japanese Government after World War II.
After World War II, each country including an international organization and EU cooperated and came to help a debt of one country.
However, the country must accept the sudden poverty like Greece.

Furthermore, Will neighboring countries and the world help Japan having an enormous debt?

The history teaches us that reckless debt predisposition does not have the future.
There is not childlike economic theory that a nation can get in debt at will by.

Because there is not a pain if a reflationary policy go well, its result is happy, but becomes more miserable if it fail.
With the current economics, it is difficult to control an interest rate, inflation, and currency exchange.
Therefore a reflationary policy is a thing such as a kind of gambling.




明治維新の各藩や幕府、大戦後の日本政府も莫大な借金(軍票)を踏み倒した。
第二次世界大戦後は、国際機関やEUなど各国が連携し、一国の負債を助け合うようになりました。
しかし、その国はギリシャのように急激に訪れる困窮に耐えなければなりません。

ましてや、負債の規模が大きい日本を世界や隣国は助けてくれるでしょうか。

歴史は私達に、無謀な借金体質に未来がないことを教えています。
借金し放題の無邪気な経済理論はありません。

リフレ策はうまく行けば痛みが供はないので良いのですが、失敗すれば破綻が生じます。
現在の経済学では、金利やインフレ、為替を思い通りに制御するのは困難で、リフレ策は一種の博打のようなものです。



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