In the United States, the neoliberalism (small government, free competition, finance-centered) that emerged after the Reagan administration has long eroded society and the economy, leading to a chain reaction of widening inequality, industrial hollowing-out, welfare cuts, immigration issues, fiscal deterioration, and financial crises. As a result, public discontent has accumulated, populism and division have advanced, and a trend seeking “strong leaders” has emerged. This dynamic, which diverts attention from root causes and seeks scapegoats, resembles the eve of Nazism's rise.
Underlying this is the historical context where the wealthy and conservative classes, reacting to the crisis of the 1970s, counterattacked against the rights workers had gained and the progress of the welfare state in the first half of the 20th century, pushing forward neoliberalism.
Japan, however, suffered not only from the ills of neoliberalism but also from the legacy of its Meiji-era bureaucracy and militarism, compounded by the impact of occupation policies. This prevented democracy from taking root and left the labor movement immature. Consequently, Japan became the only advanced nation to experience a prolonged decline in national power.
Meanwhile, the Nordic countries moved away from neoliberalism, successfully balancing welfare and capitalism to enhance their citizens' happiness.
Despite the current decline of both the US and Japan matching predictions made by economists two decades ago, most people remain unaware of the true causes, and politicians offer only superficial measures to protect vested interests. Persistent wage suppression policies have made deflation merely the consequence of failing to raise wages.
The rise of populist governments in the US is merely the prologue. If authoritarianism advances, it could give birth to the world's largest dictatorship, posing a grave risk of destabilizing the international order. Trump's actions demonstrate the privatization of power, and what is more serious is that the Republican Party and his supporters desire this. Historically, when society descends into chaos, people seek salvation from dictators. These dictators absorb discontent with grand rhetoric, seize power while committing atrocities, and ultimately lead entire nations to ruin. The similarities between Hitler and Trump are a classic example.
In recent years, right-wing populism has risen globally, with semi-authoritarianism advancing even in parliamentary systems like Turkey, Hungary, and Japan. Authoritarianism takes root most easily in corrupt societies where information is suppressed, while democratization from authoritarian rule is extremely difficult. Putin's rapid consolidation of power in Russia and his boost in support through invasions of neighboring countries mirror Hitler's tactics, casting a shadow over the outcome of the Ukraine war. Furthermore, the possibility of a deep relationship between Trump and Putin further heightens the international crisis.
Japan borders three authoritarian states and faces the danger of becoming the front line should war break out. It is crucial to pursue diplomacy that avoids the unity of China, North Korea, and Russia, and instead isolates China. History shows numerous examples where a leader's unilateral decisions and the people's misconceptions have led nations to ruin. A broad perspective is needed to avoid repeating the same mistakes.
To overcome the world's crises, people must first break free from brainwashing and advance a transformation of consciousness. Successful democratization over the past century required strong reformist will among citizens, charismatic leadership, and international support. Yet in many nations today, conservative elites and the wealthy dominate politics, media, and social networks, while the impoverished are exhausted and lack the strength to rise up. The Nordic countries serve as a model for reform, achieving collaboration between businesses and workers, robust public services, sound finances, and high levels of happiness. But Japan, the US, and the UK must first rebuild their democracies.
Meanwhile, right-wing populism and extreme liberalism invite authoritarianism and war, worsening workers' conditions. Liberal democracy and globalization accompanied by appropriate regulation are essential for sustainable development. Industrial hollowing out also stems from policy errors; what was truly needed was support for workers' skill conversion. The Nordic countries implemented this and succeeded. Globalization has also contributed to the development of developing countries and improvements in public health. International cooperation is indispensable for restraining resource exploitation, environmental degradation, and conflicts.
Human progress is built on accumulated reforms, and the history of gender equality is one such example. While predicting the future is difficult, research warning early of neoliberalism's drawbacks exists. Acemoglu points out that laissez-faire technological innovation widens inequality and emphasizes the importance of corrective measures like the New Deal.
We, the people, must begin by reclaiming our democracy.
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