The election outcome of despair ２ ： financial collapse

 

＜　financial collapse of Greece　＞

Let's look at a financial collapse that may happen in the future.

Beginning from hyperinflation, it progresses the collapse of the 'bubble' economy, the debt default, the depression, and sometimes happens the war at worst.

There are some facts.

1.     National debt default occurred in 60 nations in the world after World War II.

Japan occurred a hyperinflation after World War II for excessive note issue.  

2.     A country does not disappear by the financial collapse. However, ...  

Hyperinflation and credit insecurity may induce depression and a country may resort to extreme measures in the confusion. It induced World War II.

 

3.     The European debt crisis started by financial collapse, and headed for convergence by unity of Europe.

By means of financing and unrestricted acquisition of the national bond by EU, the money market began to settle down from this September. However, each country must perform intense tight budget. An extreme depression, high rate of unemployment, their pension and income decrease, and high interest loan struck People.

将来起こり得る財政破綻を少し見てみましょう。

ハイパーインフレに始まり、バブル崩壊、債務不履行、恐慌、最悪は戦争へと進むかも。

幾つかの事実を指摘します。

1.     大戦後、国家の債務不履行（デフォルト）は世界６０ヵ国であった。

戦後日本は紙幣増発のためハイパーインフレを起こし、国民は限度額以上の預貯金を放棄させられた。

2.     財政破綻で国が消えてしまうことはない。しかし・・・。

ハイパーインフレや信用不安が恐慌を生み、その混乱の中で国が非常手段に訴えることがある。それが第二次世界大戦を生んだ。

3.     欧州債務危機は財政破綻で始まり、欧州の結束で収束に向かった。

EUによる融資、国債の無制限買い取りにより、この9月頃から金融市場は落ち着き始めた。しかし各国は超緊縮財政を行わなければならない。国民は極度の不景気、高失業率、年金や収入減、高利の借金に襲われることになった。

 

  

　＜　nominal growth rate and long-term interest rate : Red lines show US. Blue lines show Japan. Broken lines show long-term interest rate　＞

Does the financial collapse occur in Japan?

Conditions 1 :  If new national debt is not issued every year, moreover, for example, 7% of nominal economic growth rates (inclusive of inflation rate) and 4% of national bond interest rates will continue for 100 years or more, the accumulated debt of 1 quadrillion yen may become zero (dormer conditions).

Examination 1 :  Impossible, if it continues issuing a national debt to public investment of  minimum effect. Furthermore, 3% of the difference cannot be expected. Rather, this difference is reversal from 0 in many cases. In this difference is zero, 1 quadrillion yen will remain eternally（It changes with a payment method）That is, it is impossible.

Conditions 2 :  If the Bank of Japan underwrites a national debt without any restriction, it will become a high inflation rate and a nominal growth rate will become possible also over tens %.

Examination 2 :  However, national bonds interest rates also go up, and finally it becomes hyperinflation and the economic bubble burst(present Spain and Greece). In the past, there is not country that freely controlled inflation. In the end, more miserable situation is waiting.

Conditions 3 :  Since 96% of national debts are digested at home now, a run on a bank that people fasten their head is not started. There is not result in mass cancellation of national bonds.

Examination 3 :  In the near future, Japan will depend on overseas for underwriting of national debts, in order that savings ratio reduction and a weak yen. The bahts crisis (a drop in currency value) of Thailand was caused in order that a hedge fund obtain a large amount of profits. Like the collapse of the economic bubble burst repeated or debt crisis, own interests and strong avarice are moving economy and finance. There is no telling what happens.

日本で財政破綻が起きる可能性はあるのか？

条件１　：　毎年、新たな国債を発行せず、さらに、例えば名目経済成長率（インフレ率込み）７％、国債金利４％が百年続けば、累積債務１０００兆円が零になるかもしれない（ドーマー条件）。

検討１　：　効果の低い公共投資に赤字国債を発行し続ければ無理。さらに上記の差３％は期待出来ない。むしろその差は０から逆転することが多い。差が０で、永久に１０００兆円が残るだろう（返済方法で変わる）。つまり不可能である。　

条件２　：　日銀が国債を無制限に引き受けるなら、高インフレ率になり名目成長率は数十％も可能になる。

検討２　：　しかし金利も上昇し、最後にはハイパーインフレやバブル崩壊（現在のスペインやギリシャ）になる。過去、インフレを自在に制御出来た国はない。結局、より悲惨な状況が待っている。

条件３　：　現在、国債の９６％は国内で消化されているので、取付け騒ぎを起こすことはない。

検討３　：　貯蓄率減少と円安で国債引き受けを海外に頼ることになる。タイのバーツ危機（通貨安）は、ヘッジファンドが巨額の利益を得るために起こした。幾度も繰り返されるバブル崩壊や欧州債務危機に見られるように、私益と強欲が経済や金融を動かしている。何が起こるかわからない。

 

＜　European Union summit meeting　＞

Important in order to escape financial collapse

＊The issuance volume of national debts must be reduced gradually. :  Cuts in expenditures or a tax increase is required.

＊Continuous economic growth must be produced. :  We aim at the inflation rate 1-2%. We must reform the low-productivity industries that have kept by protection and regulation. In order that protected industries direct toward oversea market and grow up, trade must be expanded. we need the rise of birth rate、and practical use of female workers and overseas workers, thereby must increase the labor forces.

＊Throw away isolationism. :  Japan is the 2nd accumulated debt in the world. Nobody helps us?  We should aim at an economic community.

It is required for present Japan to bring up the political party that can implement the above-mentioned measure.

Next time, we look at the side of a Japanese political culture.

財政破綻を逃れるために大事なこと

＊国債発行額を徐々に減らす　：　歳出削減か増税が必要。

＊持続的な経済成長を生みだす : インフレ率１～２％を目指す。保護と規制で守られた低生産性の産業を改革する。保護産業を海外市場に向かわせ成長させるために貿易を拡大しなければなりません。女性労働力の活用、出生率のアップ、海外労働者の受け入れによって、労働人口を増やさなければならない。

＊孤立主義を捨てる　：　世界２位の債務残高で、いざというときに何処も助けてくれないでしょう。経済共同体を目指すべきです。

上記の対策を実行出来る政党を育てることが、今の日本には必要です。

次回は、日本の政治文化の側面を見て行きます。

The election outcome of despair １ ： Economic policy １

 

＜　a red line shows Japanese government debt　＞

This one-week was the days tormented by despair, anger, and a sense of powerlessness.

In the result of a national election of Japan, Japan will fall to an abyss.

Why is politics of Japan the worst?

The political party that stagnated Japanese economy for the past 30 years came back to political power.

And without reflecting on themselves, they are trying to take their conventional method and dangerous means.

Although I want my prediction deviate, i point out some dangerous factors.

この1週間は絶望、怒り、無力感に苛まれた日々でした。

日本の国政選挙の結果では、日本が奈落の底へと堕ちるだろう。

なぜ日本の政治はこうも劣悪なのか？　

数十年間、日本を停滞させた政党が政権に返り咲いた。

しかも彼らは反省するどころか、従来の方法と危険な手段を取ろうとしている。

私の予測が外れることを望むが、いくつかの危険要因を指摘しておきます。

Economic policy

Why do people allow that they have disregarded the economy?

The Liberal Democratic Party had performed public investment for 30 years. It was 7 to 12 trillion yen every year.

This had got to push up Japanese gross domestic product（GDP, about 450 trillion yen）from 8 to 13%. (As the marginal propensity to consume is 0.8.)

However, the economic growth rate fell from 4% to 0% in the meantime.

For this reason, 35 trillion yen national bond was floated every year. And 10 trillion yen of these was used to pay off debts.

This amount repaid will increase from now on. And if interest rates go up, the amount repaid will increase several times.

経済政策

なぜ国民は経済無視を許すのか？

自民党は毎年７から１２兆円の公共投資を３０年間行って来た。

これは日本のGDP４５０兆円を８～１３％押し上げるはずであった。(　限界消費性向＝０．８として)

しかしこの間、経済成長率は４％から０％へと低下していった。

この為に３５兆円の国債が毎年発行された。その内借金返済が１０兆円であった。

この返済額は今後増加し、金利が上昇すればその金額は数倍になる。

 

＜　a black line shows Japanese corporate investment　＞

A clear thing

Since the public investment has little effect, the outstanding obligation only increases.

Why does the party put power into this policy?  It will be only for protection of vested rights and interests.

Since the economic growth is indispensable to settle up the debts, we must carefully carry out the policy of reflation.

明確なこと

公共投資は効果が少ない為、債務残高は増加するだけである。

なぜ自民党がこの政策に力を入れるのか、それは既得権益擁護、票田確保の為だけだろう。

経済成長なくして債務解消は無いので、取り敢えずリフレ策を用心しながら実施すべきだろう。

 

＜　growth rate of the gross domestic product（GDP）in Japan ＞

What is likened to Japan?

The seriously injured diabetic is eating beef and a sweet cake heartily, carrying out insulin injection every day.

He is likened to Japan.

A serious illness of Japan is in the collusive relation between the public and private sectors, such as that nuclear power plant promotion and agricultural protection.

It is because there is much industry that abandoned growth by regulation or protection.

This seems to give the vested-rights-and-interests industry by immense government bond issuance (injection) (gluttony).

This is same as that people give assistance for the privileged business by immense government bond issuance.

We look at about economy next time also.

日本を例えるなら

重傷の糖尿病患者は毎日インスリン注射をしながら、牛肉や甘いケーキをたらふく食べている。

彼は日本に例えられる。

重病とは原発推進や農業保護に見られる官民の癒着構造にある。

それは規制や保護によって成長を放棄した産業が多いことによる。

これは国民が莫大な国債発行で特権ある業界を援助することと同じである。

次回も経済について見ます。

the scene in Awaji-island ： Kariya in Higashiura

 

＜　The sea seen from the breakwater　＞

This time, I introduce a place where I often take a walk.

Here is Kariya in Awaji City, Hyogo Prefecture, and a fishing port facing Osaka Bay.

this place is surrounded by the sea and the mountain.

今日は、私がよく散歩する場所を紹介します。

ここは兵庫県の淡路市仮屋で、大阪湾に面した漁港です。

海と山に囲まれた土地です。

 

＜　The mountain seen from the breakwater　＞

Since this place is also warm in winter, the cultivation of flowers is prosperous here.

Moreover, there is a gentle breeze in summer、and people can live comfortably.

In here, the Water and the rice are also delicious.

On holidays, many sea fishing visitors will come from Osaka or Kobe.

And many bathers visit in summer.

この地は冬でも温かいので花の栽培が盛んです。また夏はそよ風が吹き、過ごしやすい所です。

また海からは多くの魚、海苔、蛸が獲れ、新鮮でおいしい。

水と米もおいしいです。

休日になると大阪や神戸から海釣り客が来ます。夏は多くの海水浴客が訪れます。

 

＜　a big Kannon statue seen from the breakwater ＞

 

＜　a walking course toward the hill　＞

 

＜　a big Kannon statue seen from the hill　＞

 

＜　the see seen from the hill　＞

 

＜　the fishing port　＞

Thanks for Award

 

I was nominated in the Addictive Blogger Award of WordPress.

Thank you THEBLAZING TRAIL for nominating me for this award.

The announcement was overdue although this award has been nominated on October 13. I am sorry.

I was the third award this year. I am very glad. I have continued sending articles towards the world from May in this year. I appreciate that some people among the world has got interested in this blog.

Continuously, I will enjoy our blog together with us.

Ten Bloggers I nominate for this award:

1.      http://amenouwok.wordpress.com/

2.      http://leannecolephotography.com/

3.      http://ja.gravatar.com/turkischland

4.      http://lifeofbun.com/

5.      http://www.clotildajamcracker.com/

6.      http://warrenlawson.wordpress.com/

7.      http://theprojectionbooth.wordpress.com/

8.      http://earthquakeboy.wordpress.com/

9.      http://getsetandgo.wordpress.com/2012/12/

10.　 http://justiceforraymond.wordpress.com/

Birth of primitive art 5 ： the last Brightness of cave art

 

＜　fig.１、Trios Freres cave、shaman　＞

This time, we look at the wonderful arts in the last of glacial epoch Europe.

These were in the fate that disappears suddenly soon.

At first, it is the Altamira cave (about 14500 years ago) in Spain.

It is close to a sea and is on a gently sloping karsts hill (altitude 160 m.).

今回は、氷河期ヨーロッパの最後を飾る素晴らしい美術品を見ます。

これらはやがて忽然と姿を消す運命にありました。

  

最初は、スペインのアルタミラ洞窟（約１４５００年前）です。

北側に海があり、標高１６０ｍのなだらかなカルスト丘陵にある。

 

＜　fig.２, the big roof　＞

 

＜　fig.3, a bison　＞

The mural paintings were concentrated in the big roof fig.2 (entering the entrance of fig.4, immediately left-hand side).There were pictures of 25 animals drew with red, black and brown.

The pictures were many bisons, deer, wild boar, horse and a person like shaman.

The stereoscopic effect and reality of bison fig.3 are increasing by many colors, gradation and shadow processing.

This is the highest level of Old-Stone-Age pictures.

It is presumed that one author drew the all pictures of the big roof, and the cave had been managed together.

Probably, the bison that emerge in abysmal darkness by a swinging torch may seem to be alive completely.

壁画が集中しているのは大天井図２（図４の入口入って直ぐ左手）で、２５頭の動物絵が赤･黒･褐色で描かれている。

とくにバイソンが多く、鹿、猪、馬などのほか、呪術師らしい人物もある。

バイソン図３は、多色彩、ぼかしと陰影処理により、立体感と写実性が増している。これは旧石器時代絵画の最高水準です。

この大天井は一人の作者がすべて描いたと推定され、洞窟が共同で管理されていたことを伺わせる。

真っ暗闇の中、揺らぐ一つの灯明で浮かび上がるバイソンは、まるで生きているように見えただろう。

 

＜　fig.4，Altamira Cave、The lower left is an entrance. full length 270 m, Spain　＞

The first Peoples came to the cave about 19000 years ago.

The People did not live inside the cave (fig.4), but dug the hole in the cave entrance, and were making it the dumping ground.

Because of the thrown-away bone, it turned out that rich woods and many hunting animals were in the circumference of the cave.

The drawing animals accord with the hunting animals.

It seems that the peoples repeatedly used the cave as a meeting place during the long period.

Various small groups came and went the vast domain between France and Spain.

約１９０００年前に人々が洞窟に最初にやって来た。

人々は洞窟内部（図４）には住まず、洞窟入口内に穴を掘りゴミ捨て場にしていた。

捨てられていた骨から、洞窟周辺は豊かな森、多くの狩猟動物がいたことがわかる。

描かれている動物は、狩猟対象と一致する。

人々は長い期間を通じて何度も繰り返しそれぞれの洞窟を集合場所として使ったようである。

色々な小集団がフランスとスペインの間の広大な領域を行き来していた。

 

＜　fig.5、reindeer and fish ＞

＜　fig.6、Two bisons、full length 61cm in right-hand side＞

We look at other distinctive arts from an old thing.

Fig. 5 is a developed figure of commanding sticks was made of hartshorn. This was found in Lortet cave of 17000 years ago in France.

There are a reindeer of right edge looks back, and the legs of two reindeers before it.

And the four salmons seem to poke the deer from the bottom under the legs.

Probably, this drew the spectacle in which a group of reindeer just has been going across a river to which the salmons have been ascending.

They caught the moment that they excited most. The vigorous figure was expressed by simple line engraving.

Fig. 6 shows the relief that was made of clay on the floor in Tuc d'audoubert cave of 15000 years ago in France.

One pair of bison at last minute copulation was expressed.

Fig.1 was a　copｙ of mural painting in Trois Freres cave of 15000 years ago in France. This cave connected with the above-mentioned cave.

It is visible to shaman who imitated the figure of a deer, or the personified person.

他の特徴ある美術を古いものから見てみる。

図５は、フランス、ロルテ洞窟出土、１７０００年前の鹿角製指揮棒の展開図である。

右端に後ろを振り返るトナカイ、その前に２頭の脚が見える。

しかも、その足の下で、４尾の鮭が下から鹿を突いているように見える。

これは鮭が遡上している河をトナカイの群れが渡る光景を描いているのだろう。

彼らは最も興奮する瞬間を捉えた。その躍動感ある図をシンプルな線刻で表現している。

図６は、フランス、チュック・ドードゥベール洞窟、１５０００年前の床面の粘土製浮き彫りである。

今まさに交尾寸前の雌雄一対のバイソンを表現している。

図１は、上記洞窟と連なっているトロワ・フレール洞窟にある同時代の絵画の一部を模写したものです。それは鹿の姿を真似たシャーマか擬人化された人物に見える。

 

 ＜　fig.7、　line drawing carved into the rock in Addaura cave　＞

Fig. 7 shows the line drawing carved into the rock of about 10000 years ago in Addaura cave　of Italy.

Eight persons become a round ring and dance around two lying persons in the picture.

Strangely、the dancers are wearing the mask to which a beak attached. Two persons of middle are bind a head and a leg with a rope, and their penis is rising up.

This is associated with the scene of a sacrifice.

In those days, did the ceremony that wore mask already start?

I will tell the perspective of cave arts next time.

図７は、イタリア、シチリア島のアッダウラ洞窟の線刻画（約１００００年前）です。

中央に横たわる二人の周囲を８人が丸い輪になって踊る様子が描かれている。

異様なのは、踊り手は嘴のついた仮面をかぶっている。真ん中の二人は首と足を綱で縛られ、男根が勃起していることです。

これは生け贄のシーンを連想させます.

この頃、既に仮面を被った儀式が始まっていたのだろうか。

次回は、洞窟美術の全体像を語ります。

Misunderstanding of war １１： growing fight and perverted sense

 

 ＜　Lieutenant Colonel Hirose in Drama“Saka no Ue no Kumo” ＞

In general, a war of a nation-state is performed, after people agree.

Why do people approve the war?

We look at some of the situation.

国民国家の戦争は概ね国民の同意の上に行われます。

なぜ国民は戦争に賛同するのでしょうか？

その様子をいくつか見ていきます。

  
Birth of a war god

From 100 years ago, Lieutenant Colonel Hirose was worshipped in Japan during the war.

In the Russo-Japanese War, a navy lieutenant colonel was kind to his subordinate tragically was killed in war.

In those days, all newspapers were overflowing with various battle casualty reports every day.

In the newspaper, the lieutenant colonel's portrait that was surrounded by the flower of the cherry tree appeared with a phrase "Lieutenant Colonel war god Hirose”.

The article that the fleet director generals praise him was attached to it further.

His coffin was sent from Kyushu to Tokyo, many people went to every station on the way to meet it and wailed.

In Tokyo, it was protected by about 400 honors guards, and marched.

The campaign of bronze statue erection was performed briskly and three statues were made.

After that, the Hirose shrine was also founded.

The song "Lieutenant Colonel Hirose" for school children is made, and it  has being printed in their textbooks　until the end of the Pacific War .

軍神の誕生

今から約100年前、戦争中の日本で、広瀬中佐は崇拝された。

日露戦争の中、部下思いの一人の海軍中佐は悲愴な戦死を遂げた。

新聞は連日様々な戦死報道で溢れていた。

「軍神広瀬中佐」と書かれた、桜の花に囲まれた中佐の肖像が新聞に載った。

それには艦隊長官らの讃える文章がさらに添えられていた。

彼の棺は九州から東京まで送られたが、その途中の駅では、多くの人々が出迎え感涙にむせた。

東京では約400名の儀仗兵に護られ行進した。

銅像建立のキャンペーンが盛んに行われ、三つの像が作られた。

後に広瀬神社が創建された。

「広瀬中佐」の小学唱歌が出来、太平洋戦争の敗戦まで掲載され続けた。

＜　the attack on Pearl Harbor　＞

Respected death of the young soldier 

Although the war god of an army or air force was born also after that, the war gods of the beginning of the Pacific War were the soldiers of the special purpose submarine of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

The newspaper at those days praised them. ”In spite of the command to return, all the members　of them devoted their death entirely for attack.”

In fact, one of these ten soldiers had become a prisoner of war, but the navy had kept this secret to the last.

Navy secretary Yamamoto extolled them, and said "Don't despise the present young person."

The former war god was a veteran officer.

But with intensely consumed war situation, the youngest soldiers had become the war god.

This was connected with birth of special attack ”kamikaze” that was feared by overseas.

In other words, young soldiers who don’t regret their life became very valuable.

Although these were most commonly due to guidance of the military authorities、 people also instigated them in synchronization with the newspaper.

尊ばれる若者の死

その後も陸軍や空軍の軍神は誕生したが、太平洋戦争の最初の軍神は真珠湾攻撃の特殊潜航艇の将兵だった。

当時の新聞が彼らを讃えている。「帰還命令にも関わらず、全員、攻撃の為に死を選んだ」

実は、この将兵１０名の内１名が捕虜になっていたのですが、海軍は秘匿し続けた。

海軍の山本長官は、「今の若い者を侮るな」と絶賛した。

以前の軍神は実績と人徳ある士官であったが、消耗激しい戦局にあって,最年少の兵士達が軍神に祀り上がられるようになった。

これが海外から恐れられた神風特別攻撃隊の誕生へと繋がった。

つまり若者の命を惜しまぬ行為こそが価値あるものとなっていった。

これらは軍部や国の先導ではあるが、国民が新聞と共鳴しながら煽ったのです。

 

＜　Banzai charge　＞

prisoner of war and Banzai charge　

"Never live to experience shame as a prisoner."  A quote from Instructions for the Battle of Japan.

For fear of becoming a prisoner of war, the Japanese soldier often performed the banzai charge with a bayonet at the last.

This meant useless death, because that all the soldiers jumped into a bullet

In those days, it was natural to sacrifice a soldier's life for an Emperor.

Although they had to rush shouting "Emperor banzai”, in practice they muttered "mother..." all most.

The reason for fearing a prisoner of war was mostly in the education.

But, when he became a prisoner of war, his domestic family received persecution from the circumference.

Until Russo-Japanese War, the correspondence to enemy's prisoner by Japanese army was good.

In proportion as the aforementioned conscious against the prisoner, the abuses of enemy’s prisoner become to occur frequently.

In this way, people will be gradually soaked in ravages of war completely, and became to distort soul.

捕虜と万歳突撃

「生きて虜囚の辱めを受けず」これは戦陣訓の一節です。

日本兵は、捕虜になることを恐れて、最後に銃剣による万歳突撃をよく行った。

これは全兵士が銃弾の中に飛び込む為、無駄死を意味した。

兵士の命は国と天皇の為に捨てることが当然になっていた。

「天皇万歳」と言って突撃するとされていたが、実際は「お母さん・・」がほとんどだった。

捕虜を恐れる理由は教育にもあったのだが、捕虜になると国内の家族は周囲から迫害を受けたのです。

日露戦争までは日本軍の捕虜への対応は良かったのだが、先ほどの捕虜の観念が蔓延してくると、敵国の捕虜虐待が頻発することになった。

こうして国民は徐々に戦禍にどっぷりと浸かり、精神を歪めていくことになる。