Tuesday, January 1, 2013

The election outcome of despair 2 : financial collapse

 financial collapse of Greece

< financial collapse of Greece >

Let's look at a financial collapse that may happen in the future.

Beginning from hyperinflation, it progresses the collapse of the 'bubble' economy, the debt default, the depression, and sometimes happens the war at worst.

There are some facts.

1.     National debt default occurred in 60 nations in the world after World War II.
Japan occurred a hyperinflation after World War II for excessive note issue.  

2.     A country does not disappear by the financial collapse. However, ...  
Hyperinflation and credit insecurity may induce depression and a country may resort to extreme measures in the confusion. It induced World War II.
3.     The European debt crisis started by financial collapse, and headed for convergence by unity of Europe.
By means of financing and unrestricted acquisition of the national bond by EU, the money market began to settle down from this September. However, each country must perform intense tight budget. An extreme depression, high rate of unemployment, their pension and income decrease, and high interest loan struck People.




1.     大戦後、国家の債務不履行(デフォルト)は世界60ヵ国であった。

2.     財政破綻で国が消えてしまうことはない。しかし・・・。

3.     欧州債務危機は財政破綻で始まり、欧州の結束で収束に向かった。

nominal growth rate and long-term interest rate 
 < nominal growth rate and long-term interest rate : Red lines show US. Blue lines show Japan. Broken lines show long-term interest rate >

Does the financial collapse occur in Japan?

Conditions 1 :  If new national debt is not issued every year, moreover, for example, 7% of nominal economic growth rates (inclusive of inflation rate) and 4% of national bond interest rates will continue for 100 years or more, the accumulated debt of 1 quadrillion yen may become zero (dormer conditions).

Examination 1 :  Impossible, if it continues issuing a national debt to public investment of  minimum effect. Furthermore, 3% of the difference cannot be expected. Rather, this difference is reversal from 0 in many cases. In this difference is zero, 1 quadrillion yen will remain eternallyIt changes with a payment methodThat is, it is impossible.

Conditions 2 :  If the Bank of Japan underwrites a national debt without any restriction, it will become a high inflation rate and a nominal growth rate will become possible also over tens %.

Examination 2 :  However, national bonds interest rates also go up, and finally it becomes hyperinflation and the economic bubble burst(present Spain and Greece). In the past, there is not country that freely controlled inflation. In the end, more miserable situation is waiting.

Conditions 3 :  Since 96% of national debts are digested at home now, a run on a bank that people fasten their head is not started. There is not result in mass cancellation of national bonds.

Examination 3 :  In the near future, Japan will depend on overseas for underwriting of national debts, in order that savings ratio reduction and a weak yen. The bahts crisis (a drop in currency value) of Thailand was caused in order that a hedge fund obtain a large amount of profits. Like the collapse of the economic bubble burst repeated or debt crisis, own interests and strong avarice are moving economy and finance. There is no telling what happens.


条件1  毎年、新たな国債を発行せず、さらに、例えば名目経済成長率(インフレ率込み)7%、国債金利4%が百年続けば、累積債務1000兆円が零になるかもしれない(ドーマー条件)。

検討1 : 効果の低い公共投資に赤字国債を発行し続ければ無理。さらに上記の差3%は期待出来ない。むしろその差は0から逆転することが多い。差が0で、永久に1000兆円が残るだろう(返済方法で変わる)。つまり不可能である。 

条件2 : 日銀が国債を無制限に引き受けるなら、高インフレ率になり名目成長率は数十%も可能になる。

検討2 : しかし金利も上昇し、最後にはハイパーインフレやバブル崩壊(現在のスペインやギリシャ)になる。過去、インフレを自在に制御出来た国はない。結局、より悲惨な状況が待っている。

条件3 : 現在、国債の96%は国内で消化されているので、取付け騒ぎを起こすことはない。

検討3 : 貯蓄率減少と円安で国債引き受けを海外に頼ることになる。タイのバーツ危機(通貨安)は、ヘッジファンドが巨額の利益を得るために起こした。幾度も繰り返されるバブル崩壊や欧州債務危機に見られるように、私益と強欲が経済や金融を動かしている。何が起こるかわからない。

 European Union summit meeting 

< European Union summit meeting >

Important in order to escape financial collapse

The issuance volume of national debts must be reduced gradually. :  Cuts in expenditures or a tax increase is required.

Continuous economic growth must be produced. :  We aim at the inflation rate 1-2%. We must reform the low-productivity industries that have kept by protection and regulation. In order that protected industries direct toward oversea market and grow up, trade must be expanded. we need the rise of birth rateand practical use of female workers and overseas workers, thereby must increase the labor forces.
Throw away isolationism. :  Japan is the 2nd accumulated debt in the world. Nobody helps us?  We should aim at an economic community.

It is required for present Japan to bring up the political party that can implement the above-mentioned measure.

Next time, we look at the side of a Japanese political culture.


*国債発行額を徐々に減らす : 歳出削減か増税が必要。

*持続的な経済成長を生みだす : インフレ率1~2%を目指す。保護と規制で守られた低生産性の産業を改革する。保護産業を海外市場に向かわせ成長させるために貿易を拡大しなければなりません。女性労働力の活用、出生率のアップ、海外労働者の受け入れによって、労働人口を増やさなければならない。

*孤立主義を捨てる : 世界2位の債務残高で、いざというときに何処も助けてくれないでしょう。経済共同体を目指すべきです。



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