Friday, January 18, 2013

The election outcome of despair5: very bad political culture3

 The President, the prime minister

< The President, the prime minister of each country 

Last time, we looked at the situation where public opinion for nuclear power generation public opinion was not reflected in this election.

This time, we look at rapid declines of government’s approval rating that are one of the causes.

Comparing with overseas, we can check an abnormality of the election in Japan.




 Transition of government’s approval rating in Japan 

< Transition of government’s approval rating in Japan >

In Japan, in about half year, the people almost abandoned the Cabinet that they chose. And the Cabinet changed places in about one years.


 Transition of President Obama's approval rating 

< Transition of President Obama's approval rating >

This chart shows the approval rating of Obama who was inaugurated as the U.S. President in January 2009 during two and a half years.

The Republican Party got a majority of the House of Representatives by the election in November 2010.

As a result, his political managementbecame difficult, and his approval rating declined, but it regained soon.
Although President Obama's approval rating declined, if it is compared with Japan, it is small.




 Transition of U.S. previous presidents’ approval ratings 

< Transition of U.S. previous presidents’ approval ratings >

This chart shows that almost all U.S. previous Presidents have lowered the approval ratings sharply at the end.

For example, although the approval rating of W. bush declined to 30% from 85%, it took  six years and a half.



 Transition of The British party leader's approval ratings

< Transition of The British party leader's approval ratingsThe value was subtracted the disapproval rating from the approval rating. >

The Political power replaced the Conservative Party from the Labor Party in May 2010. And Cameron became the prime minister.

At this time, he united with the leader Clegg of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Miliband are the Labor Party leaders of the opposition party.

The final net satisfaction(approval rating disapproval rating) of previous cabinets in JapanAbe’s cabinet was 58%, subsequently 53%,50%,61%,and Noda’s it was 48%.

Comparing with it, the British party leader's approval ratings were only 20% after two years.




 previous French presidents’ approval ratings

<  previous French presidents’ approval ratingsa green line is approval, a red is disapproval.

In this chart, although the Presidents’ approval ratings declined a little during 5 and 8 years, it recovered at last half soon again.

They are passionate about executing their policy according to their ideas until approval ratings decline to 30 and 40 %.
But, in consideration of the next presidential election, they tried to retrieve support by popular policy.

This chart shows the result of them aiming.



 South Korean Presidents’ approval rating

< South Korean Presidents’ approval rating盧泰愚=yellow、金泳三=red、金大中=green、盧武鉉=blue、李明博=purple 

This chart shows transition of the Presidents’ approval ratings during five years in term of office.

At first, although the approval ratings are high, the last declined until about 20%.

Although this is the same as Japan, the period is from 5 to 10 times longer than Japan.

Moreover, Lee Myung-bak(李明博) and Roh Moo Hyun(盧武鉉) became unpopular within one year, but became popular again.




What is this problem?

The critical issue, since the Cabinet is not stabilized, is too short term to tackle an important policy.

The big cause that has caused it is national public opinion that is easy to heat and cools down easily.

The big one of the causes is national public opinion that is easily warmed up but just as easily cooled down.

As a result, the people accepted the short-lived the Cabinet and are content with scraps of policy.

Such political situation was not in the U.S., Britain, France, and South Korea.

These many are the single-member district system (proportional representation system is included).

Although many tops term of office are from 4 to 5 years by each countries, they have worked for longer ministry than it.

This difference may have rested with politicians, bureaucrats, mass media, election system, and society in Japan.

However, the people have to have a sense of crisis for this problem is the first step.

Next time, other political cultures are compared with the world.










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